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But no one knew for certain that the deal would go through until the very end.
In a sign of the strain on negotiators and families alike, Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan choked up on the White House podium as he welcomed what he called a “good day.”
“We held our breath and crossed our fingers until just a couple of hours ago,” he said.
The process leading to Thursday’s news began all the way back in 2018 when Whelan was arrested and Donald Trump was US president.
Not only was Whelan not freed, but then Gershkovich was arrested while reporting in Yekaterinburg in March, 2023. Suddenly “these efforts were obviously made more complicated,” Sullivan said.
Then in February this year, the tense diplomatic to-and-fro took another dark turn when Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny – who Sullivan revealed Thursday had also been on the US wish list for release — died in a Russian prison.
“The team felt like the wind had been taken out of our sails,” the senior US official added.
By coincidence, Gershkovich’s mother and father were meeting with Sullivan at the White House that same day. It’s “going to be a little bit more of a rocky path,” he told them.
The breakthrough came during Oval Office talks between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Biden in April.
“Chancellor Scholz responded to the president saying, ‘For you, I will do this,'” added the US official.
Biden on Thursday thanked Scholz, praising the “bold and brave” decisions by allies.
And once the deal was outlined, a careful choreography ensued.Russia fast-tracked a trial for Gershkovich, which ended with him receiving a 16-year jail sentence – but which behind the scenes indicated that Russia was preparing for the swap.
Finally, the White House ceremony on Thursday brought this diplomatic – and intensely personal journey — to a head.
Noting that it was the 13th birthday of Kurmasheva’s daughter, Biden asked the assembled family members and journalists to sing “happy birthday” – perhaps the happiest possible.
While lot of work clearly went into getting the deal done, the situation between the US and Russia will likely continue to deteriorate, said strategic analyst Malcolm David.
The Russia-Ukraine war continues to be a “real threat” to Western security, and there is “real concern” of a direct Russian attack on NATO in the next few years – a prospect which key decision-makers are preparing their countries for, added the senior analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
As for the deal itself, David said it is significant in terms of scale and those involved in the prisoner exchange.
“(The motivation behind the deal) is really uncertain because the Russians don’t have any real credibility or influence in Western circles after their invasion of Ukraine and how they’re conducting that invasion,” he told CNA’s Asia First programme.
“So it’s a bit of a mystery as to why this has happened now, but I think we should all be pleased and see this is a very positive development.”
However, David expressed concerns that Russia will see the exchange as “an opportunity to do the same thing again”.
“American citizens in Russia are at risk of being aggressively grabbed off the street and thrown into prison on spurious charges, because the Russians will feel they can try and gain benefits from hostage diplomacy,” he warned.
“In that sense, I think the Russians’ perspective on this is that they are probably going to try this again. And certainly, if I were the US government, I would be getting my citizens out of Russia for that reason.
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